Editor in Chief: BONDREA A. Aurelian, Associate Professor Ph.D., Rector at Spiru Haret University, Bucharest, Romania
Deputy Chief Editor: GURGU Elena, Associate Professor Ph.D., Department of Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Bucharest, Romania
Call for papers of the ASHUES Journal for 2018 are also guided this time by the major trends that are expected to take place in 2018 in the global economy and will influence one way or another our lives for all. The global economy will face serious challenges in the coming months, and there is a mountain of debt in the background that makes the markets nervous and thus increases the vulnerability of the system to destabilizing shocks. However, the basic scenario of the world economy for 2018 seems to be continuity. Power and economic influence will continue to shift from West to East, without suddenly changing the polarization pattern of jobs, income and policies, primarily in developed countries.
In the context of the worsening of the global financial crisis, policy makers are more likely to address long-term problems that hamper sustainable development. The last decade has been highlighted by a series of economic crises and negative shocks, starting with the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 and the global realignment of commodity prices over the 2014-2016 period. As these crises succeeded, the world economy has strengthened, providing a greater sphere of policy reorientation to long-term issues that hamper progress in the economic, social and environmental dimension of sustainable development.
Worldwide growth is expected to remain constant at 3.0% in 2018 and 2019. Strong economic activity was not evenly shared between countries and regions. The recent acceleration of world economic growth in products is mainly due to the stronger growth of more developed economies, although East and South Asia remain the most dynamic regions in the world. Recent economic gains remain unevenly distributed between countries and regions, and many parts of the world need to regain a healthy growth rate. The economic outlook for many commodity exporters remains provocative, highlighting vulnerability to explosion cycles in countries with a low natural resource base.
A stronger and wider recovery of investment activity needed to support productivity growth and accelerate progress towards sustainable development goals can be discouraged by a high level of trade policy uncertainty, considerable uncertainties about the impact of the large central bank balance sheet adjustment, as well as increased debt and an increase in longer-term financial fragility.
Between 2017 and 2019, a GDP per capita decline or increase is expected in Central Europe, Africa, West Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. These combined regions represent 275 million people living in extreme poverty. This underlines the importance of addressing longer-term structural issues that hinder faster progress towards sustainable development and ensure that the objectives of poverty eradication and decent work for all are not pushed further. Failure to do so may leave a quarter of the African population in extreme poverty by 2030. Supporting economic growth in LDCs requires both financial resources and progress towards addressing institutional and security concerns.
Accelerating growth also has an environmental cost. The frequency of weather-related shocks continues to increase, highlighting the urgent need to build resistance to climate change and counteract the degradation rate of the environment. Although the level of global carbon emissions related to energy remained unclear between 2013-2016, the return to a more pronounced GDP growth will probably lead to higher levels of emissions. International maritime and aviation emissions are not covered by the Paris Agreement and emissions from these two sectors have increased faster than road transport over the past 25 years and have continued to grow uninterrupted since 2013.
The transition to sustainable energy is advancing at a progressive pace. Renewable energies represent more than half of the recently installed power capacity, but still account for about 11% of global energy generation. China remains the world's largest renewable energy investor, and renewable investments in 2017 have been backed by massive wind projects in Australia, China, Germany, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States.
At a time when many countries, especially in Africa, continue to suffer from a serious energy shortage, there is tremendous potential to lay the foundations for environmentally sustainable growth in the future, smart policies and investments today .
High levels of political uncertainty continue to affect the prospects for global trade, development aid, migration and climate goals and may delay a wider recovery of global investment and productivity. Increasing geopolitical tensions could intensify the trend towards more unilateral and isolationist policies. The prolonged period of abundant global liquidity and low borrowing costs have contributed to a further rise in global debt and an accumulation of financial imbalances. Many emerging economies - especially those with more open capital markets - remain vulnerable to increases in risk aversion, a runaway tightening of global liquidity conditions, and a sudden withdrawal of capital.
As the conditions for wider global economic stability are strengthened, the need to concentrate political action on the consequences of the economic crisis and macroeconomic stabilization in the short term has slowed. With the improvement of investment conditions, this creates a larger sphere of action to reorient policy towards longer-term issues such as enhancing the quality of the environment, economic growth, integration, and addressing institutional deficiencies that hinder development. Reorienting policy to address these challenges and maximizing co-benefits between development goals can generate stronger investment, job creation and longer-term economic growth in the medium term. Current investment in areas such as education, expanding access to healthcare, increasing resilience to climate change, improving the executive balance of institutions and enhancing financial and digital inclusion will support economic growth and short-term job creation. It will also accelerate progress towards social and environmental objectives and increase the long-term potential for sustainable growth.
As in previous years, some of the bold and innovative movement trends that top companies around the world do to keep their success are in their early stages, while others have already taken root.
In our journal, the published papers will take into account these 20 business trends that will lead successfully the global economy in 2018:
Here is how we see the global trends taking shape in 2018 like examples of questions that could be addressed but are not limited to:
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